Astroball summary

In 2012, scout Jeff Luhnow and his analyst Sig Mejdal were recruited by the Houston Astros. It wasn’t long before the duo started shaking things up. Thanks to technological advancements, compiling previously unimaginably detailed performance metrics was now a breeze, letting the team make smarter recruiting decisions.

Take the video camera system PITCHf/x, which started being used in all major league baseball games in 2006. By triangulating between three fixed cameras, the system can calculate everything from the speed the ball is pitched at to the point it’s thrown from, as well as how strong its spin is and where it crosses the batting plate.

In mid-2012, the Astros’ public relations office prepared biographies of the high school players the team regarded as likely recruits. But when the selections were made, there were quite a few surprises. The reason? Scouting duo Jeff Luhnow and Sig Mejdal’s unique approach.

Let’s start with the question of age. Most baseball buffs thought the Astros would pick Byron Buxton, a player who’d already made a name for himself and proved his talents. Luhnow, however, wasn’t having any of it and instead plumped for someone with a much more low-key profile: Carlos Correa.

Baseball, like lots of games, is a sentimental affair. Just ask the Astros’ scouting director, Jeff Luhnow. Every season, he receives letters and emails from young fans begging him to hire or not hire their favorite players. There’s nothing wrong with emotion in sports – after all, we play and watch games because we love them. But sound recruitment policy requires a more hardheaded approach.

The reason is simple. Relying on data rather than sentiment or instinct produces better results.

Top athletes often earn more money in a week than most people do in an entire year, to say nothing of the head-turning bonuses that come their way when they’re successful. But being a professional sportsman isn’t just about laughing all the way to the bank. In fact, the athletic trade is a uniquely vulnerable one due to the threat of injuries.

Pre-existing health issues sometimes finish off careers before they’ve even really started. Take it from Brady Aiken, a young player drafted by the Astros. When Aiken arrived in Houston for his medical examination, he was on the verge of fame and fortune. A few tests later, however, and his dream had been shattered.

What makes the greatest athletes, well, great? They improve with age, taking their natural talent and complementing it with their growing experience of the game. Baseball is no exception. Every player hopes for constant growth and development. But not all careers pan out that way. Sometimes players start to plateau.

Take JD Martinez, a batter from Florida selected by the Astros in the twentieth round of the 2009 draft. Once he had his foot in the door of the minor leagues, he started to shine. Within two years, he’d been selected for the major league team. By 2012, he was one of the best players in a struggling Astros team and their most consistent point-winning batter.

Most major league baseball players belong to two broad groups – those whose first language is English and those whose mother tongue is Spanish. The division between them might be invisible in most locker rooms, but it’s there all the same.

But it doesn’t have to be that way. In fact, clubs that overcome the linguistic divide often develop a much stronger team spirit.

Data and sophisticated algorithms helped the Astros become one of the best baseball teams in the American Major League. But the club’s success wasn’t merely driven by tech. Data might be able to do a lot, but it’s worth remembering that it can’t do everything.

One area in which it sometimes comes up short is player valuations. Take an example from 2017. The Astros had the opportunity to sign Justin Verlander, one of the best pitchers in the country. Great news, right? Well, there was a catch – he would cost the club $40 million for two seasons. Sig Mejdal’s algorithm suggested the deal wasn’t worth it. What it failed to pick up on, however, was the changing economic climate in the major league. Prices were rising everywhere, and fast. Star players like David Price and Zack Greinke were making $30 million a year on four-year contracts.